{"F": {"ts_code": "688132.SH", "name": "邦彦技术", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220923", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.96, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.1819, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 242951.4192, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [72.9, 72.7, 69.6, 60.5, 61.9, 43.6], "rev_series": [2.8, 3.1, 3.5, 1.8, 3.2, 1.4], "np_series": [0.7, 0.8, 0.4, -0.5, -0.4, -2.1], "roe_series": [15.8, 15.1, 3.3, -3.3, -2.5, -15.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.1, "np_ttm": -2.6, "ocf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_ttm": -1.4, "fcf_yield": -5.7, "ocf_yield": -4.4, "gm_median": 61.9, "gm_std": 10.1, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -3.3, "npm_median": -11.9, "roe_median": -2.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.3, "fix_assets": 5.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.18, "capex_dep": 0.73, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 19.3, "debt_mv": 0.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -27.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -39.8, "np_yoy": -74.6, "np_vol": 191.1, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["融合通信产品", 18.0], ["融合通信", 18.0], ["其他主营业务", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 8.5, "ret_prev2_year": -20.8, "ret_ytd": -13.4, "ret_pivot": 27.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 19.3, "ret_60": 11.5, "ret_120": -10.7, "ret_250": -24.2, "mdd_250": -46.6, "vol_250": 37.2, "pos_52w": 75.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 65, "hard": 58, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -2.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 19%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -4.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 36%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 61.9%,稳定度 84%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.7%(经营现金流/市值 -4.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 61.9%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 0.73 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 19% / 12% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "邦彦技术:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 22.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 22.2个百分点。"]}}