{"F": {"ts_code": "688131.SH", "name": "皓元医药", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗服务", "sw3": "医疗研发外包", "ind": "医疗服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210608", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 88.83, "pe_ttm": 73.0642, "pb": 5.8819, "dv_ttm": 0.2584, "total_mv": 1894158.5103, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [56.7, 54.1, 51.4, 45.2, 48.0, 47.1], "rev_series": [6.4, 9.7, 13.6, 18.8, 22.7, 28.8], "np_series": [1.3, 1.9, 1.9, 1.3, 2.0, 2.4], "roe_series": [27.7, 16.3, 9.3, 5.3, 7.5, 8.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 32.1, "np_ttm": 2.6, "ocf_ttm": 4.1, "fcf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 48.0, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -5.2, "npm_median": 8.7, "roe_median": 8.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.3, "fix_assets": 12.2, "goodwill_ratio": 5.6, "pb_calc": 5.72, "capex_dep": 1.79, "interest_debt": 24.0, "debt_ebitda": 3.5, "debt_ratio": 50.0, "debt_mv": 12.7, "payout": 20.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 28.4, "np_cagr3": 7.4, "rev_yoy": 25.7, "np_yoy": 12.8, "np_vol": 33.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 15, "fwd_pe": 55.5, "fwd_pe2": 39.3, "fwd_g1": 32.0, "fwd_g2": 41.0, "peg": 1.35, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 25.0], ["分子砌块,工具化合物和生化试剂", 18.0], ["分子砌块和工具化合物-产品销售", 17.0], ["分子砌块,工具化合物和生化试剂：产品销售", 17.0]], "ret_prev_year": 103.7, "ret_prev2_year": -3.7, "ret_ytd": 23.5, "ret_pivot": 279.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.0, "ret_60": 17.5, "ret_120": 35.2, "ret_250": 42.2, "mdd_250": -31.8, "vol_250": 60.2, "pos_52w": 88.5}, "S": {"duration": 84, "pricing": 60, "hard": 29, "bondness": 19}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 73.1 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 18%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(15 篇研报)前瞻 PE 55.5 倍,次年 39.3 倍,PEG 1.35。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 48.0%),硬资产占比 18%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 48.0%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 1.79 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 73.1 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 42%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 88%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / 18% / 35%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗服务」52 家中位:PE 73.1 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 41.3% / 固定资产占比 19% / 分红率 34%。", "皓元医药:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点。"]}}