{"F": {"ts_code": "688129.SH", "name": "东来技术", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "涂料油墨", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20201023", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.64, "pe_ttm": 25.5741, "pb": 2.4561, "dv_ttm": 1.18, "total_mv": 260716.1232, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [45.4, 42.3, 32.9, 32.9, 39.1, 39.1], "rev_series": [4.1, 4.9, 3.9, 5.2, 6.0, 6.6], "np_series": [0.8, 0.9, 0.2, 0.5, 0.8, 1.0], "roe_series": [14.3, 11.4, 2.5, 6.0, 9.8, 10.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.7, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -2.8, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 39.1, "gm_std": 3.7, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -12.5, "npm_median": 14.2, "roe_median": 9.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.8, "fix_assets": 2.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.46, "capex_dep": 15.46, "interest_debt": 5.3, "debt_ebitda": 5.0, "debt_ratio": 40.1, "debt_mv": 20.3, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 19.0, "np_cagr3": 67.2, "rev_yoy": 3.9, "np_yoy": 3.1, "np_vol": 70.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 3.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["汽车售后修补涂料", 25.0], ["汽车新车内外饰件、车身涂料", 20.0], ["耗材", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 21.3, "ret_prev2_year": 3.8, "ret_ytd": 8.4, "ret_pivot": 100.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.3, "ret_60": -11.9, "ret_120": -11.7, "ret_250": -15.4, "mdd_250": -43.1, "vol_250": 44.0, "pos_52w": 67.0}, "S": {"duration": 47, "pricing": 55, "hard": 19, "bondness": 34}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 25.6 倍、股息率 1.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 39.1%、固定资产占比 12%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 39.1%),硬资产占比 12%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.8%(经营现金流/市值 2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 39.1%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 15.46 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.6 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -12% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "东来技术:PE 比行业中位低 10.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 16.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 22.7个百分点。"]}}