{"F": {"ts_code": "688128.SH", "name": "中国电研", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20191105", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.07, "pe_ttm": 16.5326, "pb": 2.4817, "dv_ttm": 2.4921, "total_mv": 892731.5, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.5, 27.3, 28.4, 30.7, 32.6, 34.2], "rev_series": [25.2, 34.1, 37.9, 41.7, 45.2, 47.7], "np_series": [2.8, 3.2, 3.6, 4.1, 4.7, 5.3], "roe_series": [12.8, 13.3, 14.2, 14.7, 15.2, 15.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 49.2, "np_ttm": 5.4, "ocf_ttm": 11.9, "fcf_ttm": 8.9, "fcf_yield": 10.0, "ocf_yield": 13.3, "gm_median": 30.7, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -3.1, "npm_median": 9.8, "roe_median": 14.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.7, "fix_assets": 9.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.48, "capex_dep": 2.25, "interest_debt": 0.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 57.6, "debt_mv": 0.8, "payout": 43.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.9, "np_cagr3": 13.7, "rev_yoy": 6.5, "np_yoy": 2.1, "np_vol": 1.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 70.0, "earn_yield": 6.0, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 14.6, "fwd_pe2": 12.8, "fwd_g1": 13.0, "fwd_g2": 14.0, "peg": 1.04, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["电气装备", 15.0], ["环保涂料及树脂", 13.0], ["质量技术服务", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 42.9, "ret_prev2_year": 4.9, "ret_ytd": -22.6, "ret_pivot": 51.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.8, "ret_60": -7.7, "ret_120": -23.1, "ret_250": -18.1, "mdd_250": -41.8, "vol_250": 42.5, "pos_52w": 61.3}, "S": {"duration": 34, "pricing": 53, "hard": 17, "bondness": 43}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 16.5 倍、股息率 2.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 30.7%、固定资产占比 11%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 30.7%),硬资产占比 11%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 10.0%(经营现金流/市值 13.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.7%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 2.25 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.5 倍 粗算,约 70%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -8% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "中国电研:PE 比行业中位低 25.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.3个百分点。"]}}