{"F": {"ts_code": "688125.SH", "name": "安达智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "其他自动化设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220415", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 117.36, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 5.2839, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 967344.4944, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [68.2, 61.9, 59.5, 56.2, 44.3, 43.8], "rev_series": [5.1, 6.3, 6.5, 4.7, 7.1, 7.0], "np_series": [1.3, 1.5, 1.6, 0.3, -0.3, -1.1], "roe_series": [26.8, 25.0, 12.1, 1.5, -1.6, -5.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.9, "np_ttm": -0.7, "ocf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_ttm": -2.0, "fcf_yield": -2.0, "ocf_yield": -0.7, "gm_median": 56.2, "gm_std": 7.6, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -8.7, "npm_median": 5.9, "roe_median": 1.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.9, "fix_assets": 3.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.28, "capex_dep": 4.43, "interest_debt": 1.3, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 29.3, "debt_mv": 1.3, "payout": 41.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 2.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 27.8, "np_yoy": 69.2, "np_vol": 107.7, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 180.6, "fwd_pe2": 64.1, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 182.0, "peg": 0.99, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["固化及其他设备", 21.0], ["流体控制设备", 16.0], ["配件及技术服务", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 245.7, "ret_prev2_year": -0.6, "ret_ytd": -13.1, "ret_pivot": 373.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.7, "ret_60": -33.5, "ret_120": -56.6, "ret_250": 157.9, "mdd_250": -67.7, "vol_250": 81.7, "pos_52w": 41.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 62, "hard": 24, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 29%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 56.2%),硬资产占比 15%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.0%(经营现金流/市值 -0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 56.2%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 4.43 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 158%,最大回撤 -68%,年化波动 82%,现价在 52 周高点的 41%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -34% / -57%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "安达智能:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 22.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点。"]}}