{"F": {"ts_code": "688122.SH", "name": "西部超导", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航空装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航空装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航空装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20190722", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 49.48, "pe_ttm": 50.3508, "pb": 4.4491, "dv_ttm": 0.8084, "total_mv": 3214539.946, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.9, 40.8, 39.5, 31.9, 33.6, 34.5], "rev_series": [21.1, 29.3, 42.3, 41.6, 46.1, 52.3], "np_series": [3.7, 7.4, 10.8, 7.5, 8.0, 8.4], "roe_series": [13.8, 18.2, 19.0, 12.2, 12.3, 12.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 51.1, "np_ttm": 6.4, "ocf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.0, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 34.5, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 1.5, "npm_median": 19.0, "roe_median": 12.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.3, "fix_assets": 25.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.45, "capex_dep": 1.41, "interest_debt": 40.7, "debt_ebitda": 5.1, "debt_ratio": 51.8, "debt_mv": 12.7, "payout": 60.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.3, "np_cagr3": -8.1, "rev_yoy": -4.1, "np_yoy": -36.8, "np_vol": 44.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 37.0, "fwd_pe2": 31.8, "fwd_g1": 36.0, "fwd_g2": 16.0, "peg": 2.31, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["高端钛合金材料", 22.0], ["超导产品", 14.0], ["高性能高温合金材料", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 78.0, "ret_prev2_year": -18.9, "ret_ytd": -33.3, "ret_pivot": 53.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.9, "ret_60": -7.2, "ret_120": -36.2, "ret_250": -15.5, "mdd_250": -54.7, "vol_250": 58.4, "pos_52w": 46.8}, "S": {"duration": 72, "pricing": 57, "hard": 24, "bondness": 54}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 50.4 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 34.5%、固定资产占比 15%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 34.5%),硬资产占比 15%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.0%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.5%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 1.41 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 50.4 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 47%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -7% / -36%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航空装备Ⅱ」48 家中位:PE 73.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 32.0% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 36%。", "西部超导:PE 比行业中位低 23.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.3个百分点。"]}}