{"F": {"ts_code": "688121.SH", "name": "*ST卓然", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "能源及重型设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210906", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 1.72, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.1833, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 40181.608, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.2, 18.5, 18.4, 20.5, 17.5, 12.8], "rev_series": [27.3, 39.0, 29.4, 29.6, 28.4, 18.5], "np_series": [2.5, 3.2, 1.8, 1.5, 0.9, -1.9], "roe_series": [45.0, 24.9, 9.2, 6.7, 3.9, -7.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.3, "np_ttm": -2.9, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": -4.2, "fcf_yield": -104.3, "ocf_yield": 9.9, "gm_median": 18.4, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -0.9, "npm_median": 4.5, "roe_median": 6.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.5, "fix_assets": 31.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 0.18, "capex_dep": 7.04, "interest_debt": 22.2, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 68.1, "debt_mv": 552.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -14.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -64.3, "np_yoy": -44918.2, "np_vol": 110.5, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["石化专用设备", 49.0], ["其他产品及服务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 1.4, "ret_prev2_year": -46.8, "ret_ytd": -84.2, "ret_pivot": -81.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -24.2, "ret_60": -73.5, "ret_120": -86.6, "ret_250": -89.0, "mdd_250": -88.8, "vol_250": 61.2, "pos_52w": 11.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 46, "hard": 66, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 42%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.9 个百分点;资产负债率 68%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 42%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.4%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -104.3%(经营现金流/市值 9.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.4%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 7.04 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -89%,最大回撤 -89%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 11%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -24% / -74% / -87%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "*ST卓然:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 23.5个百分点。"]}}