{"F": {"ts_code": "688120.SH", "name": "华海清科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "半导体设备", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220608", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 243.49, "pe_ttm": 105.8583, "pb": 15.2752, "dv_ttm": 0.1167, "total_mv": 12083955.8086, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.2, 44.7, 47.7, 46.0, 43.2, 41.8], "rev_series": [3.9, 8.0, 16.5, 25.1, 34.1, 46.5], "np_series": [1.0, 2.0, 5.0, 7.2, 10.2, 10.8], "roe_series": [27.4, 28.0, 17.9, 14.0, 17.1, 15.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 53.4, "np_ttm": 11.4, "ocf_ttm": 4.8, "fcf_ttm": 3.3, "fcf_yield": 0.3, "ocf_yield": 0.4, "gm_median": 44.7, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 9.6, "npm_median": 28.9, "roe_median": 17.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.7, "fix_assets": 15.4, "goodwill_ratio": 5.6, "pb_calc": 15.28, "capex_dep": 1.05, "interest_debt": 4.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 45.1, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 13.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 41.3, "np_cagr3": 29.3, "rev_yoy": 35.6, "np_yoy": 11.4, "np_vol": 52.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 75.4, "fwd_pe2": 56.6, "fwd_g1": 40.0, "fwd_g2": 33.0, "peg": 2.28, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0]], "ret_prev_year": 37.8, "ret_prev2_year": 30.0, "ret_ytd": 127.7, "ret_pivot": 332.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.1, "ret_60": 30.4, "ret_120": 99.2, "ret_250": 177.9, "mdd_250": -34.0, "vol_250": 66.1, "pos_52w": 70.8}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 67, "hard": 17, "bondness": 6}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 105.9 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 11%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(11 篇研报)前瞻 PE 75.4 倍,次年 56.6 倍,PEG 2.28。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 44.7%),硬资产占比 11%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.3%(经营现金流/市值 0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 44.7%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 9.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 1.05 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 105.9 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 178%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / 30% / 99%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "华海清科:PE 比行业中位高 24.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点。"]}}