{"F": {"ts_code": "688117.SH", "name": "圣诺生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "化学制药", "sw3": "化学制剂", "ind": "化学制药", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210603", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.59, "pe_ttm": 25.4594, "pb": 4.5438, "dv_ttm": 1.0651, "total_mv": 519783.0036, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [79.2, 72.0, 65.5, 63.8, 58.0, 57.7], "rev_series": [3.8, 3.9, 4.0, 4.4, 4.6, 7.4], "np_series": [0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.7, 0.5, 1.6], "roe_series": [14.7, 10.0, 8.0, 8.2, 5.6, 16.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.1, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 3.5, "gm_median": 63.8, "gm_std": 5.3, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -13.7, "npm_median": 16.2, "roe_median": 8.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.7, "fix_assets": 7.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.54, "capex_dep": 1.95, "interest_debt": 6.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 44.8, "debt_mv": 12.3, "payout": 31.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 23.3, "np_cagr3": 34.8, "rev_yoy": 50.3, "np_yoy": 52.0, "np_vol": 88.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 3.9, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 20.0, "fwd_pe2": 15.6, "fwd_g1": 27.0, "fwd_g2": 28.0, "peg": 0.71, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["原料药", 66.0], ["制剂", 17.0], ["药学研究服务", 11.0], ["定制生产", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 109.5, "ret_prev2_year": -8.5, "ret_ytd": -11.9, "ret_pivot": 92.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.8, "ret_60": 9.2, "ret_120": -11.3, "ret_250": -24.1, "mdd_250": -34.4, "vol_250": 47.4, "pos_52w": 72.1}, "S": {"duration": 47, "pricing": 68, "hard": 60, "bondness": 23}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 52%,PE TTM 25.5 倍 但前瞻 PE 20.0 倍,PEG 0.71。", "自由现金流 0.5 亿(正),次年预期增速 28%(2 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 38%、毛利率 63.8% 两条都占,但所在行业(医药生物)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 3.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 63.8%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 1.95 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.5 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / 9% / -11%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制药」157 家中位:PE 37.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 38%。", "圣诺生物:PE 比行业中位低 12.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.9个百分点。"]}}