{"F": {"ts_code": "688116.SH", "name": "天奈科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "电池化学品", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20190925", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 34.86, "pe_ttm": 51.9895, "pb": 3.3557, "dv_ttm": 0.2374, "total_mv": 1277730.9006, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.1, 33.9, 35.0, 33.6, 35.2, 36.8], "rev_series": [4.7, 13.2, 18.4, 14.0, 14.5, 13.0], "np_series": [1.1, 3.0, 4.2, 3.0, 2.5, 2.3], "roe_series": [6.6, 16.2, 18.9, 11.4, 8.9, 6.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.7, "np_ttm": 2.5, "ocf_ttm": 3.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 0.5, "ocf_yield": 2.4, "gm_median": 35.0, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -4.1, "npm_median": 21.3, "roe_median": 11.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 43.1, "fix_assets": 25.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.29, "capex_dep": 1.62, "interest_debt": 15.5, "debt_ebitda": 3.4, "debt_ratio": 35.0, "debt_mv": 12.1, "payout": 20.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -11.0, "np_cagr3": -18.7, "rev_yoy": 11.4, "np_yoy": 15.4, "np_vol": 75.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 1.9, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 31.2, "fwd_pe2": 20.6, "fwd_g1": 67.0, "fwd_g2": 52.0, "peg": 0.6, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["碳纳米管导电浆料", 45.0], ["碳纳米管粉体", 4.0], ["其他收入", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 22.0, "ret_prev2_year": 35.3, "ret_ytd": -25.9, "ret_pivot": 80.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.1, "ret_60": -6.0, "ret_120": -21.3, "ret_250": -29.3, "mdd_250": -55.4, "vol_250": 48.8, "pos_52w": 50.7}, "S": {"duration": 73, "pricing": 56, "hard": 69, "bondness": 39}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 26 亿,占总资产 43%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 35.0%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.1 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 0.5%,股息率 0.2%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 90%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 43%)和定价权(毛利率 35.0% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.5%(经营现金流/市值 2.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.0%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 43%,资本开支/折旧 1.62 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 52.0 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -29%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -6% / -21%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "天奈科技:PE 比行业中位高 16.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.3个百分点。"]}}