{"F": {"ts_code": "688115.SH", "name": "思林杰", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "仪器仪表", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220314", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 58.9, "pe_ttm": 386.7584, "pb": 4.3032, "dv_ttm": 0.348, "total_mv": 549760.82, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [77.8, 73.1, 67.2, 60.7, 56.6, 58.1], "rev_series": [1.9, 2.2, 2.4, 1.7, 1.9, 2.6], "np_series": [0.6, 0.7, 0.5, 0.1, 0.2, -0.1], "roe_series": [39.8, 25.4, 6.5, 0.7, 1.2, -0.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.1, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": -2.0, "fcf_yield": -3.6, "ocf_yield": -0.7, "gm_median": 60.7, "gm_std": 6.2, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -10.6, "npm_median": 8.2, "roe_median": 1.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.2, "fix_assets": 3.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.3, "capex_dep": 14.71, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 9.0, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": 231.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 48.8, "np_yoy": 161.9, "np_vol": 80.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["嵌入式智能仪器模块", 27.0], ["自动化生产设备", 9.0], ["自动化生产测试设备", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 53.1, "ret_prev2_year": 26.9, "ret_ytd": 25.9, "ret_pivot": 298.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.1, "ret_60": 49.7, "ret_120": 93.3, "ret_250": 28.8, "mdd_250": -47.2, "vol_250": 69.6, "pos_52w": 81.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 66, "hard": 34, "bondness": 61}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 386.8 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 60.7%、固定资产占比 21%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 60.7%),硬资产占比 21%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.6%(经营现金流/市值 -0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 60.7%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 14.71 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 386.8 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 29%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 70%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 50% / 93%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "思林杰:PE 比行业中位高 336.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 32.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点。"]}}