{"F": {"ts_code": "688112.SH", "name": "鼎阳科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "仪器仪表", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20211201", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 64.61, "pe_ttm": 65.4677, "pb": 6.4899, "dv_ttm": 1.0215, "total_mv": 1031155.5709, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [57.1, 56.5, 57.5, 61.3, 61.1, 61.5], "rev_series": [2.2, 3.0, 4.0, 4.8, 5.0, 6.0], "np_series": [0.5, 0.8, 1.4, 1.6, 1.1, 1.4], "roe_series": [40.2, 10.4, 9.8, 10.2, 7.2, 9.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.8, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_yield": 1.1, "ocf_yield": 1.4, "gm_median": 61.1, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 0.5, "npm_median": 26.7, "roe_median": 9.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.6, "fix_assets": 0.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.49, "capex_dep": 2.12, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 9.3, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 73.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 14.8, "np_cagr3": 0.4, "rev_yoy": 28.3, "np_yoy": 19.4, "np_vol": 34.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 53.0, "fwd_pe2": 39.7, "fwd_g1": 24.0, "fwd_g2": 34.0, "peg": 1.56, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 37.0, "ret_prev2_year": -29.3, "ret_ytd": 75.6, "ret_pivot": 236.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 22.6, "ret_60": -11.0, "ret_120": 53.6, "ret_250": 66.8, "mdd_250": -48.7, "vol_250": 63.8, "pos_52w": 76.1}, "S": {"duration": 81, "pricing": 72, "hard": 4, "bondness": 38}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 65.5 倍,估值里约 92% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 3%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(9 篇研报)前瞻 PE 53.0 倍,次年 39.7 倍,PEG 1.56。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 61.1%),硬资产占比 3%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 61.1%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 2.12 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 65.5 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 67%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 23% / -11% / 54%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "鼎阳科技:PE 比行业中位高 14.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 32.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 18.2个百分点。"]}}