{"F": {"ts_code": "688109.SH", "name": "品茗科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210330", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 70.85, "pe_ttm": 324.3683, "pb": 7.2418, "dv_ttm": 0.77, "total_mv": 558597.6955, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [81.8, 77.7, 73.0, 76.4, 74.3, 73.4], "rev_series": [3.8, 4.8, 4.4, 4.4, 4.5, 4.4], "np_series": [1.0, 0.6, -0.6, 0.1, 0.3, 0.5], "roe_series": [40.6, 10.5, -6.5, 1.6, 4.0, 5.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.1, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 74.3, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -8.8, "npm_median": 7.0, "roe_median": 4.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.9, "fix_assets": 0.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 7.24, "capex_dep": 3.07, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 3.1, "debt_ratio": 14.2, "debt_mv": 0.6, "payout": 95.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 0.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -15.4, "np_yoy": -94.2, "np_vol": 123.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["建筑信息化软件", 25.0], ["信息化软件产品", 25.0], ["智慧工地产品", 25.0], ["智慧工地", 25.0]], "ret_prev_year": 438.0, "ret_prev2_year": -12.5, "ret_ytd": -44.1, "ret_pivot": 191.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.4, "ret_60": -9.1, "ret_120": -46.3, "ret_250": 72.6, "mdd_250": -65.7, "vol_250": 84.6, "pos_52w": 39.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 75, "hard": 1, "bondness": 67}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 324.4 倍,估值里约 98% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 1%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 74.3%),硬资产占比 1%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 74.3%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 3.07 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 324.4 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 73%,最大回撤 -66%,年化波动 85%,现价在 52 周高点的 39%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / -9% / -46%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "品茗科技:PE 比行业中位高 241.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 25.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.9个百分点。"]}}