{"F": {"ts_code": "688108.SH", "name": "赛诺医疗", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗器械", "sw3": "医疗耗材", "ind": "医疗器械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20191030", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.5, "pe_ttm": 82.3219, "pb": 6.9154, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 689620.8, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [79.9, 73.8, 63.1, 58.9, 61.9, 66.3], "rev_series": [3.3, 1.9, 1.9, 3.4, 4.6, 5.3], "np_series": [0.2, -1.3, -1.6, -0.4, 0.0, 0.5], "roe_series": [2.1, -13.0, -18.3, -4.8, 0.2, 5.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.9, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_yield": 2.5, "ocf_yield": 3.0, "gm_median": 63.1, "gm_std": 5.1, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -16.8, "npm_median": -12.6, "roe_median": -4.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.7, "fix_assets": 0.8, "goodwill_ratio": 3.4, "pb_calc": 6.92, "capex_dep": 1.46, "interest_debt": 1.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 21.0, "debt_mv": 2.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 39.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 26.7, "np_yoy": 263.6, "np_vol": 1307.4, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 81.7, "fwd_pe2": 61.1, "fwd_g1": 1.0, "fwd_g2": 34.0, "peg": 2.4, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["支架", 32.0], ["球囊", 12.0], ["其他主营业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 97.1, "ret_prev2_year": -22.2, "ret_ytd": -14.2, "ret_pivot": 89.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.7, "ret_60": -15.3, "ret_120": -22.8, "ret_250": -50.6, "mdd_250": -58.8, "vol_250": 62.4, "pos_52w": 44.8}, "S": {"duration": 87, "pricing": 68, "hard": 9, "bondness": 2}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 82 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 21%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 3.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 63.1%),硬资产占比 6%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.5%(经营现金流/市值 3.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 63.1%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -16.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 1.46 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 82.3 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -51%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 45%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -15% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗器械」140 家中位:PE 38.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 55.4% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 45%。", "赛诺医疗:PE 比行业中位高 43.7倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 16.2个百分点。"]}}