{"F": {"ts_code": "688106.SH", "name": "金宏气体", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "电子化学品Ⅱ", "sw3": "电子化学品Ⅲ", "ind": "电子化学品Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200616", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.65, "pe_ttm": 116.9626, "pb": 3.453, "dv_ttm": 0.9642, "total_mv": 1375675.9335, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.5, 30.0, 36.0, 37.7, 32.2, 29.7], "rev_series": [12.4, 17.4, 19.7, 24.3, 25.3, 27.8], "np_series": [2.0, 1.7, 2.3, 3.2, 2.0, 1.3], "roe_series": [10.9, 6.1, 8.3, 10.5, 6.5, 4.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.4, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 5.7, "fcf_ttm": -3.6, "fcf_yield": -2.6, "ocf_yield": 4.2, "gm_median": 32.2, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -0.5, "npm_median": 9.6, "roe_median": 6.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 54.1, "fix_assets": 44.7, "goodwill_ratio": 4.5, "pb_calc": 3.45, "capex_dep": 2.38, "interest_debt": 26.3, "debt_ebitda": 4.2, "debt_ratio": 48.7, "debt_mv": 19.1, "payout": 59.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 12.2, "np_cagr3": -16.8, "rev_yoy": 12.1, "np_yoy": -17.4, "np_vol": 33.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 65.4, "fwd_pe2": 49.6, "fwd_g1": 79.0, "fwd_g2": 32.0, "peg": 2.04, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["大宗气体", 21.0], ["特种气体", 17.0], ["现场制气及租金", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 16.1, "ret_prev2_year": -28.3, "ret_ytd": 32.6, "ret_pivot": 76.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -15.6, "ret_60": -22.5, "ret_120": -2.7, "ret_250": 35.4, "mdd_250": -49.0, "vol_250": 71.6, "pos_52w": 51.5}, "S": {"duration": 95, "pricing": 55, "hard": 87, "bondness": 47}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 117.0 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 32.2%、固定资产占比 54%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 54%、毛利率 32.2% 两条都占,但所在行业(电子)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.6%(经营现金流/市值 4.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.2%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 54%,资本开支/折旧 2.38 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 117.0 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 35%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 72%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -16% / -22% / -3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电子化学品Ⅱ」36 家中位:PE 93.9 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 29.9% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 44%。", "金宏气体:PE 比行业中位高 23.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 21.2个百分点。"]}}