{"F": {"ts_code": "688103.SH", "name": "国力电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "其他电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "其他电子Ⅲ", "ind": "其他电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210910", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 70.15, "pe_ttm": 100.9869, "pb": 5.9197, "dv_ttm": 0.326, "total_mv": 668638.934, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.5, 40.9, 38.8, 36.5, 29.4, 25.2], "rev_series": [4.0, 5.1, 7.0, 6.9, 7.9, 13.2], "np_series": [1.4, 0.7, 0.9, 0.6, 0.3, 0.7], "roe_series": [26.6, 9.5, 8.7, 6.0, 2.7, 6.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.6, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 2.4, "gm_median": 36.5, "gm_std": 5.9, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -4.7, "npm_median": 9.2, "roe_median": 6.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.1, "fix_assets": 4.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.8, "capex_dep": 2.9, "interest_debt": 5.2, "debt_ebitda": 4.0, "debt_ratio": 56.8, "debt_mv": 7.8, "payout": 34.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 23.6, "np_cagr3": -6.2, "rev_yoy": 24.2, "np_yoy": -11.8, "np_vol": 68.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 43.3, "fwd_pe2": 25.5, "fwd_g1": 133.0, "fwd_g2": 70.0, "peg": 0.62, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["直流接触器", 32.0], ["真空继电器", 6.0], ["交流接触器", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 50.0, "ret_prev2_year": -17.4, "ret_ytd": 16.2, "ret_pivot": 158.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.8, "ret_60": 16.5, "ret_120": 15.9, "ret_250": 4.3, "mdd_250": -43.5, "vol_250": 57.9, "pos_52w": 68.1}, "S": {"duration": 92, "pricing": 52, "hard": 24, "bondness": 26}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 101.0 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 15%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(3 篇研报)前瞻 PE 43.3 倍,次年 25.5 倍,PEG 0.62。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 36.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.5%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 2.90 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 101.0 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 4%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / 16% / 16%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「其他电子Ⅱ」34 家中位:PE 51.5 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 23.1% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 35%。", "国力电子:PE 比行业中位高 49.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.4个百分点。"]}}