{"F": {"ts_code": "688102.SH", "name": "斯瑞新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "金属新材料", "sw3": "其他金属新材料", "ind": "金属新材料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220316", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 30.66, "pe_ttm": 141.7679, "pb": 11.5937, "dv_ttm": 0.2596, "total_mv": 2394775.95, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.4, 19.1, 18.9, 21.0, 23.1, 24.3], "rev_series": [6.8, 9.7, 9.9, 11.8, 13.3, 15.7], "np_series": [0.5, 0.6, 0.8, 1.0, 1.1, 1.5], "roe_series": [12.4, 11.4, 9.9, 9.6, 10.5, 9.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.9, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": -2.7, "fcf_yield": -1.1, "ocf_yield": 0.4, "gm_median": 21.0, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -3.5, "npm_median": 8.6, "roe_median": 9.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.0, "fix_assets": 14.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 11.59, "capex_dep": 3.83, "interest_debt": 9.2, "debt_ebitda": 2.8, "debt_ratio": 43.0, "debt_mv": 3.8, "payout": 60.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 16.5, "np_cagr3": 23.7, "rev_yoy": 40.6, "np_yoy": 28.5, "np_vol": 4.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 115.5, "fwd_pe2": 86.2, "fwd_g1": 23.0, "fwd_g2": 34.0, "peg": 3.4, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["高强高导铜合金材料及制品", 19.0], ["中高压电接触材料及制品", 10.0], ["光模块芯片基座/壳体", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 346.4, "ret_prev2_year": -12.7, "ret_ytd": -20.7, "ret_pivot": 352.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -19.4, "ret_60": -24.7, "ret_120": -20.8, "ret_250": 84.7, "mdd_250": -51.3, "vol_250": 79.6, "pos_52w": 56.5}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 47, "hard": 61, "bondness": 34}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 141.8 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 21.0%、固定资产占比 38%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 21.0%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.1%(经营现金流/市值 0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.0%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 3.83 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 141.8 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 85%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 80%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -19% / -25% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「金属新材料」35 家中位:PE 58.5 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 35%。", "斯瑞新材:PE 比行业中位高 83.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.1个百分点。"]}}