{"F": {"ts_code": "688101.SH", "name": "三达膜", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "水务及水治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20191115", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.66, "pe_ttm": 13.2702, "pb": 1.0822, "dv_ttm": 2.3874, "total_mv": 486729.7386, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.1, 32.2, 30.4, 33.8, 36.0, 40.2], "rev_series": [8.8, 11.5, 12.6, 14.5, 13.9, 15.2], "np_series": [2.2, 2.5, 2.2, 2.5, 3.1, 3.8], "roe_series": [6.9, 7.3, 6.2, 6.9, 8.0, 8.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.2, "np_ttm": 3.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_yield": 2.4, "ocf_yield": 3.6, "gm_median": 33.8, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -6.7, "npm_median": 21.7, "roe_median": 7.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.5, "fix_assets": 2.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.08, "capex_dep": 3.26, "interest_debt": 0.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 25.1, "debt_mv": 1.2, "payout": 30.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 6.6, "np_cagr3": 20.2, "rev_yoy": 27.0, "np_yoy": -5.9, "np_vol": 12.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 62.0, "earn_yield": 7.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["膜技术应用", 40.0], ["水务投资运营", 20.0], ["膜法水处理", 18.0], ["工业料液分离", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 26.3, "ret_prev2_year": -1.1, "ret_ytd": -8.9, "ret_pivot": 34.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.3, "ret_60": -15.3, "ret_120": -14.1, "ret_250": -2.2, "mdd_250": -33.5, "vol_250": 47.2, "pos_52w": 67.9}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 52, "hard": 6, "bondness": 39}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 13.3 倍、股息率 2.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 33.8%、固定资产占比 4%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.8%),硬资产占比 4%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.4%(经营现金流/市值 3.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.8%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 3.26 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.3 倍 粗算,约 62%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -15% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "三达膜:PE 比行业中位低 12.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.4个百分点。"]}}