{"F": {"ts_code": "688100.SH", "name": "威胜信息", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信终端及配件", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200121", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.97, "pe_ttm": 22.6595, "pb": 3.5468, "dv_ttm": 2.0996, "total_mv": 1276906.4644, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.0, 34.9, 37.1, 40.8, 39.7, 40.2], "rev_series": [14.5, 18.3, 20.0, 22.3, 27.4, 29.8], "np_series": [2.8, 3.4, 4.0, 5.3, 6.3, 6.7], "roe_series": [14.1, 13.8, 15.0, 18.6, 20.1, 19.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 26.8, "np_ttm": 5.6, "ocf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 39.7, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 1.1, "npm_median": 22.4, "roe_median": 18.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.1, "fix_assets": 5.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.55, "capex_dep": 2.39, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 37.3, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 40.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 14.1, "np_cagr3": 18.5, "rev_yoy": -22.0, "np_yoy": -33.7, "np_vol": 8.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.4, "consensus_n": 12, "fwd_pe": 17.4, "fwd_pe2": 14.5, "fwd_g1": 30.0, "fwd_g2": 20.0, "peg": 0.87, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电监测终端", 37.0], ["通信网关", 22.0], ["通信模块", 12.0], ["水气热传感终端", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.0, "ret_prev2_year": 28.1, "ret_ytd": -33.4, "ret_pivot": -20.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.9, "ret_60": -15.4, "ret_120": -37.4, "ret_250": -27.6, "mdd_250": -45.0, "vol_250": 35.9, "pos_52w": 56.6}, "S": {"duration": 43, "pricing": 61, "hard": 15, "bondness": 33}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 22.7 倍、股息率 2.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 39.7%、固定资产占比 9%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 39.7%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 39.7%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 2.39 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.7 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -14% / -15% / -37%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "威胜信息:PE 比行业中位低 61.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.1个百分点。"]}}