{"F": {"ts_code": "688098.SH", "name": "申联生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "动物保健Ⅱ", "sw3": "动物保健Ⅲ", "ind": "动物保健Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20191028", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.35, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.473, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 342887.74, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [83.7, 75.7, 75.2, 70.8, 60.2, 56.8], "rev_series": [3.4, 3.6, 3.3, 3.0, 3.0, 2.9], "np_series": [1.3, 1.1, 0.6, 0.3, -0.4, -0.2], "roe_series": [9.7, 7.7, 4.1, 2.1, -3.1, -1.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.8, "np_ttm": -0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -0.9, "ocf_yield": 0.2, "gm_median": 70.8, "gm_std": 7.8, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -8.5, "npm_median": 9.9, "roe_median": 2.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 50.1, "fix_assets": 7.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.47, "capex_dep": 0.57, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 9.8, "debt_mv": 1.6, "payout": 43.8, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -4.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -8.1, "np_yoy": -48.8, "np_vol": 98.5, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 208.8, "fwd_pe2": 55.7, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 275.0, "peg": 0.76, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["兽用生物制品", 50.0], ["其他", 0.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 62.3, "ret_prev2_year": -26.5, "ret_ytd": -6.0, "ret_pivot": 127.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.0, "ret_60": 3.3, "ret_120": -7.3, "ret_250": -42.4, "mdd_250": -44.4, "vol_250": 45.2, "pos_52w": 62.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 80, "bondness": 39}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 10%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 50%、毛利率 70.8% 两条都占,但所在行业(农林牧渔)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.9%(经营现金流/市值 0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 70.8%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 50%,资本开支/折旧 0.57 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -42%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / 3% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「动物保健Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 37.8 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 39.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 64%。", "申联生物:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 30.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.1个百分点。"]}}