{"F": {"ts_code": "688096.SH", "name": "京源环保", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "水务及水治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200409", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.19, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.3061, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 191446.0002, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.3, 39.3, 37.7, 34.1, 27.6, 23.8], "rev_series": [3.5, 4.2, 5.1, 4.0, 4.8, 4.7], "np_series": [0.6, 0.6, 0.5, -0.3, -0.2, -0.7], "roe_series": [11.3, 7.4, 6.4, -3.5, -3.1, -8.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.9, "np_ttm": -0.7, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -3.0, "ocf_yield": -1.9, "gm_median": 34.1, "gm_std": 5.9, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -2.7, "npm_median": -5.2, "roe_median": -3.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.3, "fix_assets": 6.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.25, "capex_dep": 0.25, "interest_debt": 5.8, "debt_ebitda": 11.4, "debt_ratio": 57.3, "debt_mv": 30.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -2.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 8.1, "np_yoy": -24.9, "np_vol": 82.4, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["工业废水处理", 33.0], ["其他主营业务", 8.0], ["其他", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 51.3, "ret_prev2_year": -20.7, "ret_ytd": 3.7, "ret_pivot": 135.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.3, "ret_60": -40.8, "ret_120": -7.0, "ret_250": -14.9, "mdd_250": -52.1, "vol_250": 66.4, "pos_52w": 54.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 52, "hard": 50, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 57%,有息负债 6 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 31%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 34.1%,稳定度 83%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.0%(经营现金流/市值 -1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.1%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 0.25 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -41% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "京源环保:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.4个百分点。"]}}