{"F": {"ts_code": "688091.SH", "name": "上海谊众", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "化学制药", "sw3": "化学制剂", "ind": "化学制药", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210909", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 40.56, "pe_ttm": 121.7607, "pb": 5.6245, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 838389.9638, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [null, 92.7, 92.8, 93.5, 92.3, 83.1], "rev_series": [null, 0.0, 2.4, 3.6, 1.7, 3.2], "np_series": [-0.2, -0.0, 1.4, 1.6, 0.1, 0.6], "roe_series": [-8.6, -0.6, 11.5, 11.6, 0.5, 4.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.2, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 92.7, "gm_std": 3.9, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 20.4, "roe_median": 4.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.2, "fix_assets": 2.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.62, "capex_dep": 6.16, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 7.1, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 30.4, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 10.2, "np_cagr3": -23.3, "rev_yoy": 3.4, "np_yoy": 11.3, "np_vol": 1424.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["注射用紫杉醇聚合物胶束", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 17.7, "ret_prev2_year": -18.5, "ret_ytd": -13.7, "ret_pivot": 56.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.7, "ret_60": 1.1, "ret_120": -23.4, "ret_250": -44.4, "mdd_250": -50.7, "vol_250": 59.3, "pos_52w": 56.0}, "S": {"duration": 95, "pricing": 87, "hard": 29, "bondness": 22}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 121.8 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 18%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 92.7%),硬资产占比 18%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 92.7%,稳定度 96%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 6.16 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 121.8 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -44%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 1% / -23%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制药」157 家中位:PE 37.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 38%。", "上海谊众:PE 比行业中位高 84.3倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 40.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.6个百分点。"]}}