{"F": {"ts_code": "688085.SH", "name": "三友医疗", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗器械", "sw3": "医疗耗材", "ind": "医疗器械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200409", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.7, "pe_ttm": 92.6295, "pb": 2.345, "dv_ttm": 0.1274, "total_mv": 502528.056, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [90.9, 90.5, 90.2, 80.0, 71.3, 74.9], "rev_series": [3.9, 5.9, 6.5, 4.6, 4.5, 5.4], "np_series": [1.2, 1.9, 1.9, 1.0, 0.1, 0.6], "roe_series": [12.0, 11.6, 10.8, 5.1, 0.6, 3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.7, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 80.0, "gm_std": 7.8, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -0.7, "npm_median": 24.7, "roe_median": 5.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.4, "fix_assets": 3.2, "goodwill_ratio": 14.5, "pb_calc": 2.34, "capex_dep": 1.49, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 9.7, "debt_mv": 0.7, "payout": 10.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -5.8, "np_cagr3": -30.8, "rev_yoy": 9.7, "np_yoy": -24.2, "np_vol": 194.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 47.9, "fwd_pe2": 32.0, "fwd_g1": 93.0, "fwd_g2": 50.0, "peg": 0.96, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["脊柱类植入耗材", 22.0], ["脊柱植入物耗材", 22.0], ["有源设备及配套辅件", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 2.1, "ret_prev2_year": 9.1, "ret_ytd": -16.3, "ret_pivot": 14.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.7, "ret_60": 12.8, "ret_120": -26.4, "ret_250": -32.8, "mdd_250": -51.1, "vol_250": 46.2, "pos_52w": 58.7}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 78, "hard": 21, "bondness": 25}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 92.6 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 13%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(5 篇研报)前瞻 PE 47.9 倍,次年 32.0 倍,PEG 0.96。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 80.0%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 80.0%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 1.49 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 92.6 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -33%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 13% / -26%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗器械」140 家中位:PE 38.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 55.4% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 45%。", "三友医疗:PE 比行业中位高 54.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 24.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.5个百分点。"]}}