{"F": {"ts_code": "688083.SH", "name": "中望软件", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210311", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 51.75, "pe_ttm": 157.0557, "pb": 3.3677, "dv_ttm": 0.6756, "total_mv": 877919.085, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [98.8, 97.9, 98.4, 93.7, 94.4, 96.0], "rev_series": [4.6, 6.2, 6.0, 8.3, 8.9, 8.9], "np_series": [1.2, 1.8, 0.1, 0.6, 0.6, 0.2], "roe_series": [26.7, 11.0, 0.2, 2.3, 2.4, 0.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.2, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 1.7, "ocf_yield": 2.4, "gm_median": 96.0, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -0.4, "npm_median": 5.4, "roe_median": 2.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.1, "fix_assets": 3.7, "goodwill_ratio": 2.5, "pb_calc": 3.37, "capex_dep": 1.87, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 15.4, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": 94.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 14.1, "np_cagr3": 48.8, "rev_yoy": 7.9, "np_yoy": 67.1, "np_vol": 383.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 96.1, "fwd_pe2": 62.3, "fwd_g1": 63.0, "fwd_g2": 54.0, "peg": 1.78, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["通用软件", 48.0], ["标准通用软件", 48.0], ["定制软件", 2.0], ["技术服务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 12.2, "ret_prev2_year": -13.8, "ret_ytd": -23.6, "ret_pivot": 8.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.4, "ret_60": -16.3, "ret_120": -10.9, "ret_250": -34.7, "mdd_250": -53.0, "vol_250": 55.7, "pos_52w": 57.0}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 90, "hard": 19, "bondness": 45}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 157.1 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 12%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(11 篇研报)前瞻 PE 96.1 倍,次年 62.3 倍,PEG 1.78。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 96.0%),硬资产占比 12%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.7%(经营现金流/市值 2.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 96.0%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 1.87 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 157.1 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -35%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -16% / -11%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "中望软件:PE 比行业中位高 74.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 47.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.3个百分点。"]}}