{"F": {"ts_code": "688082.SH", "name": "盛美上海", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "半导体设备", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20211118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 270.2, "pe_ttm": 77.1992, "pb": 8.9273, "dv_ttm": 0.2293, "total_mv": 13039762.834, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.8, 42.5, 48.9, 52.0, 48.9, 48.3], "rev_series": [10.1, 16.2, 28.7, 38.9, 56.2, 67.9], "np_series": [2.0, 2.7, 6.7, 9.1, 11.5, 14.0], "roe_series": [20.9, 9.1, 12.9, 15.2, 16.3, 13.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 72.4, "np_ttm": 16.9, "ocf_ttm": 4.6, "fcf_ttm": -4.6, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": 0.4, "gm_median": 48.9, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 5.1, "npm_median": 20.6, "roe_median": 13.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.5, "fix_assets": 21.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 8.93, "capex_dep": 8.75, "interest_debt": 24.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 29.6, "debt_mv": 1.9, "payout": 49.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 33.2, "np_cagr3": 27.8, "rev_yoy": 13.9, "np_yoy": 42.1, "np_vol": 48.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 76.4, "fwd_pe2": 58.3, "fwd_g1": 1.0, "fwd_g2": 31.0, "peg": 2.46, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["销售商品", 100.0], ["其他", 0.0], ["产品其他", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 77.7, "ret_prev2_year": -3.7, "ret_ytd": 54.0, "ret_pivot": 253.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.2, "ret_60": -4.7, "ret_120": 76.8, "ret_250": 77.9, "mdd_250": -44.7, "vol_250": 72.2, "pos_52w": 60.4}, "S": {"duration": 85, "pricing": 69, "hard": 17, "bondness": 24}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 77.2 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 10%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(3 篇研报)前瞻 PE 76.4 倍,次年 58.3 倍,PEG 2.46。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 48.9%),硬资产占比 10%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 48.9%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 8.75 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 77.2 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 78%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 72%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -5% / 77%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "盛美上海:PE 比行业中位低 4.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点。"]}}