{"F": {"ts_code": "688079.SH", "name": "美迪凯", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "光学元件", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210302", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.85, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 5.0467, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 611497.5738, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [56.8, 50.2, 36.3, 22.0, 18.6, 13.7], "rev_series": [4.2, 4.4, 4.1, 3.2, 4.9, 6.6], "np_series": [1.4, 1.0, 0.2, -0.8, -1.0, -1.6], "roe_series": [28.4, 9.3, 1.4, -5.6, -7.2, -11.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.3, "np_ttm": -2.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_ttm": -1.6, "fcf_yield": -2.7, "ocf_yield": 2.2, "gm_median": 22.0, "gm_std": 13.4, "gm_stab": 0.39, "gm_chg_2022": -20.5, "npm_median": -22.0, "roe_median": -5.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 75.7, "fix_assets": 25.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.05, "capex_dep": 1.17, "interest_debt": 11.7, "debt_ebitda": 12.3, "debt_ratio": 62.3, "debt_mv": 19.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 17.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 23.0, "np_yoy": -76.2, "np_vol": 175.8, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 40.0], ["半导体封测智能设备", 9.0], ["半导体封测", 9.0], ["精密光学零部件", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 30.7, "ret_prev2_year": -34.9, "ret_ytd": 31.2, "ret_pivot": 143.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.8, "ret_60": -38.8, "ret_120": 9.2, "ret_250": 12.7, "mdd_250": -61.5, "vol_250": 74.8, "pos_52w": 46.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 28, "hard": 100, "bondness": 18}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -2.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 62%,有息负债 12 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 76%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 22.0%,稳定度 39%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.7%(经营现金流/市值 2.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.0%,稳定度 39%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -20.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 76%,资本开支/折旧 1.17 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 13%,最大回撤 -62%,年化波动 75%,现价在 52 周高点的 46%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -39% / 9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "美迪凯:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 44.3个百分点。"]}}