{"F": {"ts_code": "688078.SH", "name": "龙软科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20191230", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.01, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.8666, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 189594.693, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [54.1, 51.6, 51.5, 54.6, 51.0, 24.1], "rev_series": [2.0, 2.9, 3.6, 4.0, 3.3, 1.5], "np_series": [0.5, 0.6, 0.8, 0.8, 0.3, -0.5], "roe_series": [9.8, 11.7, 13.2, 12.3, 4.5, -7.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.6, "np_ttm": -0.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 1.3, "gm_median": 51.5, "gm_std": 11.3, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": -2.6, "npm_median": 21.7, "roe_median": 11.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.8, "fix_assets": 0.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.87, "capex_dep": 4.15, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 18.0, "debt_mv": 1.2, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -25.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 1.8, "np_yoy": -408.7, "np_vol": 109.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["定制软件产品", 36.0], ["定制软件", 36.0], ["技术服务", 22.0], ["硬件收入", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.5, "ret_prev2_year": -34.5, "ret_ytd": -5.4, "ret_pivot": 21.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 13.6, "ret_60": 17.4, "ret_120": -3.9, "ret_250": -24.1, "mdd_250": -41.6, "vol_250": 38.7, "pos_52w": 75.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 59, "hard": 11, "bondness": 34}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 18%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 7%,毛利率近 5 年中位 51.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 51.5%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 4.15 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / 17% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "龙软科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点。"]}}