{"F": {"ts_code": "688077.SH", "name": "大地熊", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "金属新材料", "sw3": "磁性材料", "ind": "金属新材料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200722", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.15, "pe_ttm": 44.7183, "pb": 2.8041, "dv_ttm": 0.7815, "total_mv": 310809.1275, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.0, 20.5, 18.7, 11.8, 15.8, 16.8], "rev_series": [7.8, 16.5, 21.2, 14.3, 13.2, 16.4], "np_series": [0.5, 1.5, 1.5, -0.4, 0.3, 0.6], "roe_series": [8.1, 15.5, 13.4, -3.8, 3.0, 5.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 19.0, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_yield": -3.2, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 16.8, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": 0.7, "npm_median": 3.4, "roe_median": 5.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.4, "fix_assets": 9.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 2.8, "capex_dep": 1.44, "interest_debt": 9.6, "debt_ebitda": 5.4, "debt_ratio": 60.9, "debt_mv": 31.0, "payout": 57.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -8.1, "np_cagr3": -27.4, "rev_yoy": 35.5, "np_yoy": 54.0, "np_vol": 118.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["烧结钕铁硼", 62.0], ["其他业务", 17.0], ["其他", 17.0], ["其他磁性制品", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 49.1, "ret_prev2_year": -12.5, "ret_ytd": -10.5, "ret_pivot": 101.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.5, "ret_60": 0.3, "ret_120": -15.1, "ret_250": -28.6, "mdd_250": -50.1, "vol_250": 55.1, "pos_52w": 63.8}, "S": {"duration": 67, "pricing": 45, "hard": 52, "bondness": 60}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 32%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 5.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.8%,稳定度 82%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.8%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 1.44 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 44.7 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -29%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 0% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「金属新材料」35 家中位:PE 58.5 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 35%。", "大地熊:PE 比行业中位低 13.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.5个百分点。"]}}