{"F": {"ts_code": "688076.SH", "name": "ST诺泰", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "化学制药", "sw3": "原料药", "ind": "化学制药", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210520", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 28.76, "pe_ttm": 38.3775, "pb": 2.9478, "dv_ttm": 1.214, "total_mv": 911162.816, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [58.2, 54.3, 57.6, 61.0, 67.7, 62.6], "rev_series": [5.7, 6.4, 6.5, 10.3, 16.2, 19.4], "np_series": [1.2, 1.2, 1.3, 1.6, 4.0, 3.3], "roe_series": [13.7, 6.6, 7.0, 8.0, 16.8, 11.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.3, "np_ttm": 2.4, "ocf_ttm": 6.8, "fcf_ttm": -3.9, "fcf_yield": -4.2, "ocf_yield": 7.4, "gm_median": 61.0, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -0.6, "npm_median": 16.7, "roe_median": 8.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 43.2, "fix_assets": 30.5, "goodwill_ratio": 2.2, "pb_calc": 2.95, "capex_dep": 3.11, "interest_debt": 28.3, "debt_ebitda": 3.3, "debt_ratio": 56.1, "debt_mv": 31.1, "payout": 52.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 44.0, "np_cagr3": 37.4, "rev_yoy": 8.7, "np_yoy": -30.6, "np_vol": 62.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 42.0], ["原料药及中间体", 23.0], ["定制类产品", 16.0], ["CDMO/CMO业务", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 3.3, "ret_prev2_year": 17.3, "ret_ytd": -23.0, "ret_pivot": -21.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.7, "ret_60": 6.9, "ret_120": -9.4, "ret_250": -32.8, "mdd_250": -39.9, "vol_250": 30.8, "pos_52w": 65.8}, "S": {"duration": 62, "pricing": 70, "hard": 69, "bondness": 36}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 38.4 倍、股息率 1.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 61.0%、固定资产占比 43%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 43%、毛利率 61.0% 两条都占,但所在行业(医药生物)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.2%(经营现金流/市值 7.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 61.0%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 43%,资本开支/折旧 3.11 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 38.4 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -33%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 7% / -9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制药」157 家中位:PE 37.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 38%。", "ST诺泰:PE 比行业中位高 0.9倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.4个百分点。"]}}