{"F": {"ts_code": "688072.SH", "name": "拓荆科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "半导体设备", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220420", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 621.93, "pe_ttm": 83.5389, "pb": 14.2903, "dv_ttm": 0.0511, "total_mv": 18171134.0469, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.1, 44.0, 49.3, 51.0, 41.7, 35.0], "rev_series": [4.4, 7.6, 17.1, 27.0, 41.0, 65.2], "np_series": [-0.1, 0.7, 3.7, 6.6, 6.9, 9.3], "roe_series": [-1.2, 5.9, 15.0, 16.0, 13.9, 15.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 74.8, "np_ttm": 21.8, "ocf_ttm": 21.8, "fcf_ttm": 16.0, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 1.2, "gm_median": 44.0, "gm_std": 5.7, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": 15.2, "npm_median": 16.8, "roe_median": 15.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.4, "fix_assets": 23.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 14.29, "capex_dep": 4.02, "interest_debt": 16.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 47.9, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": 19.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 56.4, "np_cagr3": 36.0, "rev_yoy": 49.1, "np_yoy": 1324.1, "np_vol": 272.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 90.4, "fwd_pe2": 64.8, "fwd_g1": -8.0, "fwd_g2": 39.0, "peg": 2.32, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 47.0], ["其他业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 115.4, "ret_prev2_year": -1.5, "ret_ytd": 88.7, "ret_pivot": 504.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.0, "ret_60": -5.1, "ret_120": 83.6, "ret_250": 240.7, "mdd_250": -30.4, "vol_250": 70.9, "pos_52w": 73.2}, "S": {"duration": 88, "pricing": 64, "hard": 15, "bondness": 11}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 83.5 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 9%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(14 篇研报)前瞻 PE 90.4 倍,次年 64.8 倍,PEG 2.32。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 44.0%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 44.0%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 15.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 4.02 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 83.5 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 241%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 71%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -5% / 84%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "拓荆科技:PE 比行业中位高 2.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点。"]}}