{"F": {"ts_code": "688069.SH", "name": "德林海", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "水务及水治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200722", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 38.42, "pe_ttm": 62.608, "pb": 4.8212, "dv_ttm": 1.2689, "total_mv": 601783.986, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [58.1, 46.3, 41.8, 37.5, 22.4, 51.1], "rev_series": [4.9, 4.9, 4.5, 3.1, 4.5, 5.7], "np_series": [1.9, 1.1, 0.6, -0.1, -0.9, 1.0], "roe_series": [22.3, 7.5, 3.8, -0.9, -6.5, 7.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.3, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -1.2, "ocf_yield": -0.8, "gm_median": 41.8, "gm_std": 9.8, "gm_stab": 0.76, "gm_chg_2022": -16.3, "npm_median": 12.6, "roe_median": 3.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.4, "fix_assets": 1.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.82, "capex_dep": 1.41, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 20.1, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 77.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 8.6, "np_cagr3": 20.5, "rev_yoy": 54.9, "np_yoy": -83.6, "np_vol": 244.7, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 51.6, "fwd_pe2": 43.7, "fwd_g1": 21.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 2.87, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 55.3, "ret_prev2_year": -24.7, "ret_ytd": 145.3, "ret_pivot": 339.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.6, "ret_60": 4.5, "ret_120": 112.0, "ret_250": 127.2, "mdd_250": -34.8, "vol_250": 60.1, "pos_52w": 79.9}, "S": {"duration": 79, "pricing": 51, "hard": 12, "bondness": 47}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 1.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 63 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 20%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 7%,毛利率近 5 年中位 41.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.2%(经营现金流/市值 -0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 41.8%,稳定度 76%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -16.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 1.41 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 62.6 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 127%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 4% / 112%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "德林海:PE 比行业中位高 36.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.5个百分点。"]}}