{"F": {"ts_code": "688065.SH", "name": "凯赛生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200812", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 41.42, "pe_ttm": 47.8179, "pb": 1.6821, "dv_ttm": 1.0846, "total_mv": 2987582.3516, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [50.0, 39.0, 35.2, 28.8, 31.2, 34.2], "rev_series": [15.0, 22.0, 24.4, 21.1, 29.6, 33.0], "np_series": [4.6, 6.1, 5.5, 3.7, 4.9, 5.6], "roe_series": [6.1, 5.8, 5.1, 3.3, 4.3, 3.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 35.2, "np_ttm": 6.2, "ocf_ttm": 8.2, "fcf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": 2.7, "gm_median": 34.2, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -14.8, "npm_median": 19.3, "roe_median": 4.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 42.1, "fix_assets": 103.6, "goodwill_ratio": 1.0, "pb_calc": 1.68, "capex_dep": 3.17, "interest_debt": 7.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 12.3, "debt_mv": 2.4, "payout": 47.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 10.5, "np_cagr3": 0.4, "rev_yoy": 13.7, "np_yoy": 20.8, "np_vol": 25.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.1, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 38.8, "fwd_pe2": 33.6, "fwd_g1": 23.0, "fwd_g2": 16.0, "peg": 2.42, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["长链二元酸系列", 46.0], ["长链二元酸及其下游衍生产品系列", 46.0], ["生物基聚酰胺系列", 3.0], ["其他主营业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 30.0, "ret_prev2_year": -29.6, "ret_ytd": -16.1, "ret_pivot": 29.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -15.4, "ret_60": -7.0, "ret_120": -26.2, "ret_250": -19.2, "mdd_250": -35.6, "vol_250": 40.5, "pos_52w": 67.0}, "S": {"duration": 70, "pricing": 52, "hard": 67, "bondness": 35}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 104 亿,占总资产 42%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 34.2%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.8 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -0.4%,股息率 1.1%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 90%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 42%)和定价权(毛利率 34.2% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 2.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.2%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 3.17 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 47.8 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -15% / -7% / -26%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "凯赛生物:PE 比行业中位高 11.9倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.6个百分点。"]}}