{"F": {"ts_code": "688063.SH", "name": "派能科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "锂电池", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20201230", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 41.77, "pe_ttm": 68.2774, "pb": 1.1007, "dv_ttm": 0.2896, "total_mv": 1024865.3784, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.5, 30.0, 34.7, 32.1, 28.9, 17.6], "rev_series": [11.2, 20.6, 60.1, 33.0, 20.0, 31.6], "np_series": [2.7, 3.2, 12.7, 5.2, 0.4, 0.8], "roe_series": [17.3, 11.1, 35.0, 7.5, 0.4, 0.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 46.6, "np_ttm": 1.5, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": -6.3, "fcf_yield": -6.1, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 30.0, "gm_std": 5.9, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -8.8, "npm_median": 15.3, "roe_median": 7.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.3, "fix_assets": 27.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.1, "capex_dep": 2.96, "interest_debt": 8.5, "debt_ebitda": 2.0, "debt_ratio": 36.7, "debt_mv": 8.3, "payout": 35.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -19.3, "np_cagr3": -59.5, "rev_yoy": 130.1, "np_yoy": 469.9, "np_vol": 141.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 26.0, "fwd_pe2": 17.6, "fwd_g1": 163.0, "fwd_g2": 47.0, "peg": 0.55, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["储能电池系统", 75.0], ["轻型动力电池及其他", 12.0], ["轻型动力产品", 12.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 43.6, "ret_prev2_year": -46.9, "ret_ytd": -26.3, "ret_pivot": 29.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.5, "ret_60": -21.9, "ret_120": -46.7, "ret_250": -18.8, "mdd_250": -51.1, "vol_250": 52.4, "pos_52w": 50.1}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 47, "hard": 29, "bondness": 40}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 68.3 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 18%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(6 篇研报)前瞻 PE 26.0 倍,次年 17.6 倍,PEG 0.55。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 30.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.0%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 2.96 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 68.3 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -22% / -47%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "派能科技:PE 比行业中位高 32.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.5个百分点。"]}}