{"F": {"ts_code": "688059.SH", "name": "华锐精密", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210208", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 84.63, "pe_ttm": 34.9424, "pb": 5.4487, "dv_ttm": 0.9803, "total_mv": 1184663.4345, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [50.9, 50.3, 48.8, 45.5, 39.5, 40.4], "rev_series": [3.1, 4.9, 6.0, 7.9, 7.6, 10.0], "np_series": [0.9, 1.6, 1.7, 1.6, 1.1, 1.9], "roe_series": [24.3, 25.0, 16.6, 13.3, 8.3, 12.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.0, "np_ttm": 3.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 1.2, "gm_median": 45.5, "gm_std": 4.4, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -2.1, "npm_median": 19.9, "roe_median": 13.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.9, "fix_assets": 11.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.45, "capex_dep": 0.19, "interest_debt": 1.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 30.2, "debt_mv": 1.6, "payout": 56.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 18.5, "np_cagr3": 4.0, "rev_yoy": 19.7, "np_yoy": 178.3, "np_vol": 45.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.9, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 22.9, "fwd_pe2": 19.6, "fwd_g1": 52.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 1.35, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["车削刀片", 63.0], ["铣削刀片", 22.0], ["整体刀具", 10.0], ["钻削刀片", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 155.8, "ret_prev2_year": -43.9, "ret_ytd": 52.9, "ret_pivot": 357.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.0, "ret_60": -31.3, "ret_120": 1.7, "ret_250": 85.1, "mdd_250": -56.1, "vol_250": 71.6, "pos_52w": 54.6}, "S": {"duration": 58, "pricing": 60, "hard": 59, "bondness": 28}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 12 亿,占总资产 37%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 45.5%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.1 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 0.9%,股息率 1.0%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 86%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 37%)和定价权(毛利率 45.5% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 45.5%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 0.19 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 34.9 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 85%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 72%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / -31% / 2%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年已经跑过,加仓看信号。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "华锐精密:PE 比行业中位低 15.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.1个百分点。"]}}