{"F": {"ts_code": "688058.SH", "name": "宝兰德", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "横向通用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20191101", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.05, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.2086, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 189970.4325, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [87.9, 93.1, 89.1, 89.3, 80.2, 75.7], "rev_series": [1.8, 2.0, 2.5, 3.1, 2.8, 2.3], "np_series": [0.6, 0.3, -0.3, 0.1, -0.6, -0.7], "roe_series": [6.4, 2.8, -3.9, 1.7, -7.4, -10.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.4, "np_ttm": -0.7, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -1.2, "ocf_yield": -0.9, "gm_median": 89.1, "gm_std": 6.5, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": 1.2, "npm_median": -14.8, "roe_median": -3.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.1, "fix_assets": 0.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.21, "capex_dep": 1.42, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 5.9, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 96.3, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -2.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 10.3, "np_yoy": 13.3, "np_vol": 219.0, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 40.0], ["软件基础设施", 21.0], ["基础设施软件销售", 21.0], ["基础设施软件服务", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.0, "ret_prev2_year": -18.0, "ret_ytd": -8.0, "ret_pivot": 41.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.4, "ret_60": 9.6, "ret_120": -19.3, "ret_250": -25.2, "mdd_250": -45.1, "vol_250": 40.0, "pos_52w": 72.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 86, "hard": 18, "bondness": 57}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 6%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 89.1%),硬资产占比 11%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.2%(经营现金流/市值 -0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 89.1%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 1.42 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -25%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 10% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "宝兰德:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 40.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.3个百分点。"]}}