{"F": {"ts_code": "688056.SH", "name": "莱伯泰科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "仪器仪表", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200902", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 40.2, "pe_ttm": 82.9813, "pb": 3.3574, "dv_ttm": 0.3694, "total_mv": 271159.05, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.6, 48.4, 47.7, 43.8, 45.5, 45.3], "rev_series": [3.5, 3.7, 3.6, 4.2, 4.2, 4.0], "np_series": [0.7, 0.7, 0.4, 0.3, 0.4, 0.4], "roe_series": [12.2, 9.1, 5.5, 3.3, 4.7, 5.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.0, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 0.9, "gm_median": 45.5, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -0.9, "npm_median": 10.1, "roe_median": 5.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.4, "fix_assets": 1.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 3.36, "capex_dep": 0.46, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 11.7, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 122.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.2, "np_cagr3": -3.3, "rev_yoy": -1.1, "np_yoy": -36.6, "np_vol": 29.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 73.1, "fwd_pe2": 65.9, "fwd_g1": 14.0, "fwd_g2": 11.0, "peg": 6.65, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["实验分析仪器", 37.0], ["消耗件与顾客服务", 6.0], ["消耗件与服务", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 17.8, "ret_prev2_year": -10.8, "ret_ytd": 20.1, "ret_pivot": 101.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.8, "ret_60": -31.0, "ret_120": 6.5, "ret_250": 0.3, "mdd_250": -56.2, "vol_250": 65.2, "pos_52w": 51.7}, "S": {"duration": 87, "pricing": 63, "hard": 21, "bondness": 53}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 83.0 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 13%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 73.1 倍,次年 65.9 倍,PEG 6.65。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 45.5%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 45.5%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 0.46 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 83.0 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 0%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 65%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -31% / 6%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "莱伯泰科:PE 比行业中位高 32.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.4个百分点。"]}}