{"F": {"ts_code": "688053.SH", "name": "ST思科瑞", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220708", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 38.7, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.422, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 387000.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [76.5, 74.6, 67.8, 54.0, 36.3, 33.6], "rev_series": [1.7, 2.2, 2.4, 2.0, 1.4, 1.9], "np_series": [0.8, 1.0, 1.0, 0.5, -0.2, -0.2], "roe_series": [44.3, 36.0, 9.2, 2.9, -1.3, -1.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.0, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -1.7, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 54.0, "gm_std": 16.4, "gm_stab": 0.7, "gm_chg_2022": -8.6, "npm_median": 23.2, "roe_median": 2.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.0, "fix_assets": 5.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 2.42, "capex_dep": 1.89, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 7.9, "debt_mv": 1.1, "payout": 64.6, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -7.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 7.9, "np_yoy": 197.2, "np_vol": 60.3, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["可靠性检测筛选", 95.0], ["技术开发及其他服务", 4.0], ["DPA", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 29.9, "ret_prev2_year": -43.0, "ret_ytd": 5.3, "ret_pivot": 131.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.6, "ret_60": 10.4, "ret_120": -1.3, "ret_250": 7.5, "mdd_250": -48.6, "vol_250": 54.0, "pos_52w": 70.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 55, "hard": 51, "bondness": 45}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 8%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 54.0%,稳定度 70%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.7%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 54.0%,稳定度 70%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 1.89 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 8%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 10% / -1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "ST思科瑞:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.9个百分点。"]}}