{"F": {"ts_code": "688051.SH", "name": "佳华科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200320", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.77, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.536, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 191556.318, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.6, 33.8, 4.3, 12.8, 18.9, 7.8], "rev_series": [6.8, 4.9, 2.6, 3.2, 3.0, 2.1], "np_series": [1.8, -1.3, -2.9, -2.1, -1.0, -1.2], "roe_series": [17.9, -9.2, -24.5, -22.5, -13.4, -18.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.8, "np_ttm": -1.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_yield": -0.0, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 12.8, "gm_std": 10.4, "gm_stab": 0.19, "gm_chg_2022": -39.4, "npm_median": -63.1, "roe_median": -18.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.0, "fix_assets": 2.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.54, "capex_dep": 0.48, "interest_debt": 1.2, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 38.6, "debt_mv": 6.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -7.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -24.2, "np_yoy": -40.3, "np_vol": 86.7, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["智慧环保", 38.0], ["智慧城市", 7.0], ["智慧双碳", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 90.2, "ret_prev2_year": -37.6, "ret_ytd": -37.5, "ret_pivot": 61.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.6, "ret_60": -7.2, "ret_120": -29.5, "ret_250": -34.6, "mdd_250": -65.0, "vol_250": 62.4, "pos_52w": 43.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 17, "hard": 48, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 30%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 12.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -39.4 个百分点;资产负债率 39%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 30%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 12.8%,稳定度 19%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.0%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.8%,稳定度 19%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -39.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 0.48 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -35%,最大回撤 -65%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 43%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -7% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "佳华科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 21.4个百分点。"]}}