{"F": {"ts_code": "688048.SH", "name": "长光华芯", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "分立器件", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220401", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 272.03, "pe_ttm": 1111.9014, "pb": 15.771, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 4795342.1197, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.4, 52.8, 51.6, 33.5, 23.8, 34.5], "rev_series": [2.5, 4.3, 3.9, 2.9, 2.7, 4.8], "np_series": [0.3, 1.2, 1.2, -0.9, -1.0, 0.2], "roe_series": [6.9, 20.2, 6.2, -2.9, -3.3, 0.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.5, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": -0.2, "gm_median": 34.5, "gm_std": 11.2, "gm_stab": 0.68, "gm_chg_2022": 20.2, "npm_median": 4.8, "roe_median": 0.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.5, "fix_assets": 9.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 15.77, "capex_dep": 0.58, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 10.1, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 7.4, "np_cagr3": -43.3, "rev_yoy": 82.7, "np_yoy": 238.0, "np_vol": 171.2, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 623.0, "fwd_pe2": 313.9, "fwd_g1": 78.0, "fwd_g2": 98.0, "peg": 6.36, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["高功率单管系列", 25.0], ["光通信芯片系列", 21.0], ["高功率巴条系列", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 221.5, "ret_prev2_year": -37.8, "ret_ytd": 117.0, "ret_pivot": 1028.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.7, "ret_60": -24.7, "ret_120": 57.2, "ret_250": 231.6, "mdd_250": -57.6, "vol_250": 107.1, "pos_52w": 54.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 52, "hard": 42, "bondness": 14}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 1112 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 10%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 26%,毛利率近 5 年中位 34.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 -0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.5%,稳定度 68%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 20.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 0.58 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 1111.9 倍 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 232%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 107%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -25% / 57%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "长光华芯:PE 比行业中位高 1030.4倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.1个百分点。"]}}