{"F": {"ts_code": "688036.SH", "name": "传音控股", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "品牌消费电子", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20190930", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 56.78, "pe_ttm": 20.8084, "pb": 3.0884, "dv_ttm": 2.994, "total_mv": 6536425.591, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.7, 21.3, 21.3, 24.5, 21.3, 19.2], "rev_series": [377.9, 494.1, 466.0, 622.9, 687.2, 655.9], "np_series": [26.9, 39.1, 24.8, 55.4, 55.5, 25.8], "roe_series": [28.7, 31.9, 16.6, 32.7, 29.0, 12.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 719.5, "np_ttm": 31.4, "ocf_ttm": -44.5, "fcf_ttm": -53.3, "fcf_yield": -8.2, "ocf_yield": -6.8, "gm_median": 21.3, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -4.4, "npm_median": 7.9, "roe_median": 29.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.3, "fix_assets": 31.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.09, "capex_dep": 3.24, "interest_debt": 41.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 57.4, "debt_mv": 6.3, "payout": 87.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 12.1, "np_cagr3": 1.3, "rev_yoy": 21.9, "np_yoy": 46.2, "np_vol": 63.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.8, "consensus_n": 12, "fwd_pe": 18.3, "fwd_pe2": 13.4, "fwd_g1": 14.0, "fwd_g2": 36.0, "peg": 0.51, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["智能机", 68.0], ["其他主营业务", 14.0], ["其他", 14.0], ["功能机", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -29.2, "ret_prev2_year": -0.2, "ret_ytd": -11.9, "ret_pivot": -32.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.0, "ret_60": 8.4, "ret_120": 0.9, "ret_250": -30.7, "mdd_250": -51.4, "vol_250": 49.4, "pos_52w": 55.9}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": 47, "hard": 10, "bondness": 59}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 20.8 倍、股息率 3.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 21.3%、固定资产占比 6%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -8.2%(经营现金流/市值 -6.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.3%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 3.24 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.8 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -31%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 8% / 1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "传音控股:PE 比行业中位低 25.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 18.5个百分点。"]}}