{"F": {"ts_code": "688035.SH", "name": "德邦科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "电子化学品Ⅱ", "sw3": "电子化学品Ⅲ", "ind": "电子化学品Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220919", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 63.67, "pe_ttm": 69.6169, "pb": 3.7725, "dv_ttm": 0.3882, "total_mv": 905642.08, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.0, 34.5, 30.3, 29.2, 27.5, 27.5], "rev_series": [4.2, 5.8, 9.3, 9.3, 11.7, 15.5], "np_series": [0.5, 0.8, 1.2, 1.0, 1.0, 1.1], "roe_series": [13.4, 15.3, 8.8, 4.6, 4.3, 4.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.4, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_ttm": -1.9, "fcf_yield": -2.1, "ocf_yield": -0.6, "gm_median": 29.2, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -4.7, "npm_median": 10.8, "roe_median": 4.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.0, "fix_assets": 11.0, "goodwill_ratio": 5.9, "pb_calc": 3.77, "capex_dep": 2.23, "interest_debt": 2.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 29.4, "debt_mv": 2.5, "payout": 34.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 18.6, "np_cagr3": -4.4, "rev_yoy": 27.5, "np_yoy": 49.3, "np_vol": 31.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 52.6, "fwd_pe2": 30.8, "fwd_g1": 32.0, "fwd_g2": 71.0, "peg": 0.74, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["新能源应用材料", 49.0], ["智能终端封装材料", 25.0], ["集成电路封装材料", 20.0], ["高端装备应用材料", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 32.7, "ret_prev2_year": -31.1, "ret_ytd": 32.4, "ret_pivot": 122.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.1, "ret_60": -28.1, "ret_120": -5.2, "ret_250": 11.2, "mdd_250": -49.2, "vol_250": 70.3, "pos_52w": 61.6}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 50, "hard": 51, "bondness": 19}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 69.6 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 29.2%、固定资产占比 32%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 29.2%,稳定度 91%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.1%(经营现金流/市值 -0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.2%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 2.23 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 69.6 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 11%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 70%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -28% / -5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电子化学品Ⅱ」36 家中位:PE 93.9 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 29.9% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 44%。", "德邦科技:PE 比行业中位低 24.3倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点。"]}}