{"F": {"ts_code": "688033.SH", "name": "*ST天宜", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "轨交设备Ⅲ", "ind": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20190722", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.71, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.0207, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 377235.2606, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [74.3, 61.9, 50.8, 29.9, -42.5, -13.3], "rev_series": [4.2, 6.7, 9.9, 21.1, 7.6, 6.8], "np_series": [1.1, 1.7, 1.8, 1.4, -15.0, -22.3], "roe_series": [4.8, 7.0, 4.7, 2.8, -33.6, -88.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.9, "np_ttm": -21.9, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 2.3, "gm_median": 29.9, "gm_std": 39.5, "gm_stab": -0.32, "gm_chg_2022": -23.5, "npm_median": 8.5, "roe_median": 2.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 58.3, "fix_assets": 21.5, "goodwill_ratio": 2.2, "pb_calc": 3.02, "capex_dep": 0.2, "interest_debt": 10.3, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 65.0, "debt_mv": 27.2, "payout": 10.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -11.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -44.9, "np_yoy": 22.3, "np_vol": 455.3, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["粉末冶金闸片/有机合成闸片,闸瓦", 15.0], ["粉末冶金闸片", 15.0], ["树脂基碳纤维复合材料制品", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 33.9, "ret_prev2_year": -65.9, "ret_ytd": -12.9, "ret_pivot": 44.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.0, "ret_60": 2.8, "ret_120": -32.9, "ret_250": -6.2, "mdd_250": -53.1, "vol_250": 65.3, "pos_52w": 55.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 19, "hard": 93, "bondness": 26}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -21.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 65%,有息负债 10 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 58%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 29.9%,稳定度 -32%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 2.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.9%,稳定度 -32%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -23.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 58%,资本开支/折旧 0.20 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 65%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 3% / -33%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「轨交设备Ⅱ」32 家中位:PE 26.2 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 30.0% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 49%。", "*ST天宜:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 45.3个百分点。"]}}