{"F": {"ts_code": "688031.SH", "name": "星环科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "横向通用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20221018", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 105.88, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 17.1086, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1282586.9092, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [58.0, 58.9, 56.5, 59.6, 50.7, 54.1], "rev_series": [2.6, 3.3, 3.7, 4.9, 3.7, 4.5], "np_series": [-1.8, -2.4, -2.7, -2.9, -3.4, -2.5], "roe_series": [-25.0, -35.0, -23.3, -18.3, -27.0, -25.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.7, "np_ttm": -2.2, "ocf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_ttm": -1.9, "fcf_yield": -1.5, "ocf_yield": -1.0, "gm_median": 56.5, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -1.5, "npm_median": -73.1, "roe_median": -25.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.9, "fix_assets": 0.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 17.11, "capex_dep": 2.22, "interest_debt": 0.6, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 27.8, "debt_mv": 0.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 6.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 13.8, "np_yoy": 21.1, "np_vol": 20.4, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["软件产品及软件服务", 28.0], ["软件产品与技术服务", 28.0], ["应用与解决方案", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 134.5, "ret_prev2_year": -29.1, "ret_ytd": -2.1, "ret_pivot": 299.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.2, "ret_60": -14.8, "ret_120": -51.8, "ret_250": 88.5, "mdd_250": -68.5, "vol_250": 102.2, "pos_52w": 41.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 68, "hard": 13, "bondness": 17}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -2.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 5 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 28%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 56.5%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.5%(经营现金流/市值 -1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 56.5%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 2.22 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 88%,最大回撤 -68%,年化波动 102%,现价在 52 周高点的 42%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -15% / -52%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "星环科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点。"]}}