{"F": {"ts_code": "688028.SH", "name": "沃尔德", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "磨具磨料", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20190722", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 97.52, "pe_ttm": 134.6504, "pb": 7.2025, "dv_ttm": 0.2564, "total_mv": 1472054.648, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [47.8, 49.2, 46.2, 45.1, 46.1, 42.6], "rev_series": [2.4, 3.3, 4.1, 6.0, 6.8, 7.5], "np_series": [0.5, 0.5, 0.6, 1.0, 1.0, 0.9], "roe_series": [5.8, 6.4, 4.6, 5.1, 5.1, 4.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.4, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.1, "ocf_yield": 1.4, "gm_median": 46.1, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -1.6, "npm_median": 14.9, "roe_median": 5.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 42.1, "fix_assets": 10.3, "goodwill_ratio": 16.1, "pb_calc": 7.2, "capex_dep": 1.85, "interest_debt": 1.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 16.0, "debt_mv": 0.8, "payout": 40.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 22.1, "np_cagr3": 14.6, "rev_yoy": 24.5, "np_yoy": 34.0, "np_vol": 20.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 104.1, "fwd_pe2": 83.6, "fwd_g1": 29.0, "fwd_g2": 25.0, "peg": 4.16, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["超硬刀具", 36.0], ["硬质合金刀具", 9.0], ["超硬材料", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 197.4, "ret_prev2_year": -10.0, "ret_ytd": 51.4, "ret_pivot": 648.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.1, "ret_60": -5.3, "ret_120": -7.5, "ret_250": 279.5, "mdd_250": -60.7, "vol_250": 97.7, "pos_52w": 62.6}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 63, "hard": 67, "bondness": 17}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商誉占比高"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 10 亿,占总资产 42%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 46.1%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 0.1%,股息率 0.3%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 96%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 42%)和定价权(毛利率 46.1% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 46.1%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 1.85 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 134.7 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 280%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 98%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / -5% / -8%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年已经跑过,加仓看信号。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "沃尔德:PE 比行业中位高 84.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 21.3个百分点。"]}}