{"F": {"ts_code": "688027.SH", "name": "国盾量子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信终端及配件", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200709", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 370.5, "pe_ttm": 6344.7447, "pb": 11.8328, "dv_ttm": 0.0043, "total_mv": 3811000.05, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [68.0, 57.7, 37.6, 47.5, 55.6, 51.4], "rev_series": [1.3, 1.8, 1.3, 1.6, 2.5, 3.1], "np_series": [0.3, -0.4, -0.9, -1.2, -0.3, 0.1], "roe_series": [2.2, -2.2, -5.2, -7.9, -1.3, 0.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.1, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.1, "gm_median": 51.4, "gm_std": 7.1, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -30.4, "npm_median": -20.7, "roe_median": -2.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.7, "fix_assets": 3.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 11.83, "capex_dep": 3.25, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 9.6, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 32.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 32.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 1.8, "np_yoy": 2.6, "np_vol": 127.1, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100.0, "earn_yield": 0.0, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 1398.1, "fwd_pe2": 487.5, "fwd_g1": 354.0, "fwd_g2": 187.0, "peg": 7.48, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 68.9, "ret_prev2_year": 133.3, "ret_ytd": -26.5, "ret_pivot": 139.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.1, "ret_60": -23.0, "ret_120": -43.9, "ret_250": 14.9, "mdd_250": -51.7, "vol_250": 64.6, "pos_52w": 49.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 60, "hard": 14, "bondness": 15}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 6345 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 10%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 51.4%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 51.4%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -30.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 3.25 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 6344.7 倍 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 15%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 65%,现价在 52 周高点的 49%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / -23% / -44%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "国盾量子:PE 比行业中位高 6260.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 22.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.5个百分点。"]}}