{"F": {"ts_code": "688025.SH", "name": "杰普特", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "激光设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20191031", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 361.29, "pe_ttm": 90.6096, "pb": 13.4521, "dv_ttm": 0.2457, "total_mv": 3434039.7726, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.9, 34.9, 35.6, 41.1, 37.7, 38.5], "rev_series": [8.5, 12.0, 11.7, 12.3, 14.5, 20.7], "np_series": [0.4, 0.9, 0.8, 1.1, 1.3, 2.8], "roe_series": [2.8, 5.5, 4.3, 5.7, 6.7, 12.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 26.8, "np_ttm": 3.8, "ocf_ttm": 4.5, "fcf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_yield": 0.5, "ocf_yield": 1.3, "gm_median": 37.7, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 4.7, "npm_median": 8.5, "roe_median": 5.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.5, "fix_assets": 5.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 13.45, "capex_dep": 8.13, "interest_debt": 3.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 40.0, "debt_mv": 1.0, "payout": 30.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 20.9, "np_cagr3": 53.8, "rev_yoy": 68.9, "np_yoy": 105.2, "np_vol": 48.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 68.6, "fwd_pe2": 41.4, "fwd_g1": 32.0, "fwd_g2": 66.0, "peg": 1.04, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["激光器", 19.0], ["激光/光学智能装备", 14.0], ["光纤器件", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 204.6, "ret_prev2_year": -49.2, "ret_ytd": 156.8, "ret_pivot": 1124.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.4, "ret_60": -0.9, "ret_120": 61.2, "ret_250": 191.4, "mdd_250": -48.9, "vol_250": 92.6, "pos_52w": 72.5}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 63, "hard": 22, "bondness": 14}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 90.6 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 14%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(10 篇研报)前瞻 PE 68.6 倍,次年 41.4 倍,PEG 1.04。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 37.7%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.5%(经营现金流/市值 1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.7%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 8.13 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 90.6 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 191%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 93%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -1% / 61%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "杰普特:PE 比行业中位高 13.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点。"]}}