{"F": {"ts_code": "688022.SH", "name": "ST瀚川", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20190722", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.0, "pe_ttm": 107.6661, "pb": 2.3794, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 158290.47, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.3, 33.8, 28.0, 19.8, -6.0, 29.4], "rev_series": [6.0, 7.6, 9.4, 13.2, 4.7, 7.6], "np_series": [0.4, 0.6, 0.4, -0.9, -11.0, 0.3], "roe_series": [5.0, 6.6, 3.7, -6.6, -93.3, 4.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.2, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 9.5, "ocf_yield": 10.1, "gm_median": 28.0, "gm_std": 14.2, "gm_stab": 0.49, "gm_chg_2022": -2.2, "npm_median": 3.0, "roe_median": 3.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.5, "fix_assets": 8.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.38, "capex_dep": 0.25, "interest_debt": 9.7, "debt_ebitda": 14.7, "debt_ratio": 69.4, "debt_mv": 61.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -7.0, "np_cagr3": -2.9, "rev_yoy": -35.3, "np_yoy": -76.8, "np_vol": 482.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["智能制造装备及系统", 49.0], ["智能制造装备", 49.0], ["零部件及线束", 1.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 39.6, "ret_prev2_year": -50.0, "ret_ytd": -41.2, "ret_pivot": 7.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.0, "ret_60": 11.5, "ret_120": -44.1, "ret_250": -46.1, "mdd_250": -60.6, "vol_250": 48.8, "pos_52w": 50.9}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 37, "hard": 63, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 108 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 69%,有息负债 10 亿,经营现金流/市值 10.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 40%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 28.0%,稳定度 49%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.5%(经营现金流/市值 10.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.0%,稳定度 49%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 0.25 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 107.7 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -46%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 12% / -44%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "ST瀚川:PE 比行业中位高 65.4倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 21.5个百分点。"]}}