{"F": {"ts_code": "688019.SH", "name": "安集科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "电子化学品Ⅱ", "sw3": "电子化学品Ⅲ", "ind": "电子化学品Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20190722", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 212.5, "pe_ttm": 51.6354, "pb": 10.0202, "dv_ttm": 0.1803, "total_mv": 4852575.625, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [52.0, 51.1, 54.2, 55.8, 58.5, 56.7], "rev_series": [4.2, 6.9, 10.8, 12.4, 18.4, 25.0], "np_series": [1.5, 1.3, 3.0, 4.0, 5.3, 7.8], "roe_series": [15.9, 11.1, 22.1, 22.1, 22.1, 25.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 28.9, "np_ttm": 9.4, "ocf_ttm": 5.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 0.1, "ocf_yield": 1.1, "gm_median": 55.8, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 2.2, "npm_median": 29.1, "roe_median": 22.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.0, "fix_assets": 10.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 10.02, "capex_dep": 4.35, "interest_debt": 5.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 17.2, "debt_mv": 1.1, "payout": 10.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 32.5, "np_cagr3": 37.5, "rev_yoy": 33.7, "np_yoy": 41.6, "np_vol": 52.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 1.9, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 38.9, "fwd_pe2": 29.3, "fwd_g1": 33.0, "fwd_g2": 33.0, "peg": 1.18, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["销售化学机械抛光液", 26.0], ["化学机械抛光液", 26.0], ["销售功能性湿电子化学品", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 104.4, "ret_prev2_year": 13.8, "ret_ytd": 27.1, "ret_pivot": 245.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -15.6, "ret_60": -7.8, "ret_120": 16.9, "ret_250": 73.9, "mdd_250": -38.2, "vol_250": 66.9, "pos_52w": 61.8}, "S": {"duration": 72, "pricing": 71, "hard": 27, "bondness": 6}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 42%,PE TTM 51.6 倍 但前瞻 PE 38.9 倍,PEG 1.18。", "自由现金流 0.5 亿(正),次年预期增速 33%(9 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 55.8%),硬资产占比 17%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 55.8%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 4.35 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 51.6 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 74%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 67%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -16% / -8% / 17%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电子化学品Ⅱ」36 家中位:PE 93.9 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 29.9% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 44%。", "安集科技:PE 比行业中位低 42.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 25.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.9个百分点。"]}}