{"F": {"ts_code": "688018.SH", "name": "乐鑫科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "数字芯片设计", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20190722", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 111.5, "pe_ttm": 45.7843, "pb": 5.5539, "dv_ttm": 0.3203, "total_mv": 2613384.945, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.3, 39.6, 40.0, 40.6, 43.9, 46.6], "rev_series": [8.3, 13.9, 12.7, 14.3, 20.1, 25.7], "np_series": [1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.4, 3.4, 5.0], "roe_series": [6.4, 11.5, 5.3, 7.3, 16.7, 15.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 28.0, "np_ttm": 5.7, "ocf_ttm": 4.8, "fcf_ttm": 3.3, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 1.8, "gm_median": 40.6, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -1.3, "npm_median": 14.3, "roe_median": 11.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.7, "fix_assets": 5.7, "goodwill_ratio": 1.4, "pb_calc": 5.55, "capex_dep": 2.67, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 10.3, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 38.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 26.4, "np_cagr3": 72.3, "rev_yoy": 18.9, "np_yoy": 27.9, "np_vol": 65.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 30.5, "fwd_pe2": 23.1, "fwd_g1": 50.0, "fwd_g2": 32.0, "peg": 0.95, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["模组及开发套件", 39.0], ["模组产品", 39.0], ["芯片", 21.0], ["其他主营业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.5, "ret_prev2_year": 203.0, "ret_ytd": -7.9, "ret_pivot": 146.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.5, "ret_60": -0.8, "ret_120": 3.7, "ret_250": -15.4, "mdd_250": -42.2, "vol_250": 57.2, "pos_52w": 70.2}, "S": {"duration": 68, "pricing": 59, "hard": 17, "bondness": 16}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 28%,PE TTM 45.8 倍 但前瞻 PE 30.5 倍,PEG 0.95。", "自由现金流 3.3 亿(正),次年预期增速 32%(9 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 40.6%),硬资产占比 11%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 40.6%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 2.67 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 45.8 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -1% / 4%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "乐鑫科技:PE 比行业中位低 35.7倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点。"]}}