{"F": {"ts_code": "688017.SH", "name": "绿的谐波", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "机器人", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200828", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 279.8, "pe_ttm": 363.6456, "pb": 14.2223, "dv_ttm": 0.0751, "total_mv": 5129576.198, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [47.2, 52.5, 48.7, 41.1, 37.5, 36.9], "rev_series": [2.2, 4.4, 4.5, 3.6, 3.9, 5.7], "np_series": [0.8, 1.9, 1.6, 0.8, 0.6, 1.2], "roe_series": [7.1, 10.8, 8.2, 4.3, 2.1, 3.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.7, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.2, "gm_median": 41.1, "gm_std": 6.2, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": 1.5, "npm_median": 23.8, "roe_median": 4.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.4, "fix_assets": 7.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 14.22, "capex_dep": 3.08, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 11.5, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 30.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 8.6, "np_cagr3": -7.1, "rev_yoy": 38.6, "np_yoy": 31.3, "np_vol": 78.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 266.8, "fwd_pe2": 181.1, "fwd_g1": 36.0, "fwd_g2": 47.0, "peg": 5.68, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["谐波减速器及金属部件", 41.0], ["机电一体化产品", 8.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 78.1, "ret_prev2_year": -29.5, "ret_ytd": 45.8, "ret_pivot": 377.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -19.5, "ret_60": -23.7, "ret_120": 41.5, "ret_250": 81.1, "mdd_250": -46.5, "vol_250": 76.3, "pos_52w": 57.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 59, "hard": 29, "bondness": 22}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 363.6 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 18%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(14 篇研报)前瞻 PE 266.8 倍,次年 181.1 倍,PEG 5.68。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 41.1%),硬资产占比 18%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 41.1%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 3.08 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 363.6 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 81%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 76%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -20% / -24% / 42%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "绿的谐波:PE 比行业中位高 286.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.6个百分点。"]}}